Acknowledgments
The author would like to thank anonymous referees for helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper. All errors are the author’s sole responsibility.
Research funding: This research received no specific grant from any funding agency, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.
Competing interests: The authors report there are no competing interests to declare.
Data availability statement: The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Correlation does not necessarily mean causation. Granger (1969) used a method to determine how much of the present y can be explained by past values of y, and then whether including lagged values of x can improve the explanation’s accuracy. The Granger causality test answers the crucial question of whether x aids in the prediction of y. Because both variables are time series data, they must be examined for stationarity. Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests (not reported, but available upon request) show that both variables are stationary. TableA shows the results of the Granger causality tests. TableA: Granger causality tests– DTD versus BRI. DTD represents the normalized volume of the debt trap diplomacy narrative worldwide. BRI is the normalized volume of the BRI narrative worldwide. Time period: 4 February 2018– 7 November 2021. Frequency of data: weekly. Obs: 192–197. TableA shows that there are unidirectional relations between DTD and BRI. The null hypothesis that DTD does not cause BRI cannot be rejected at a 10 percent confidence level. It means that BRI is not endogenous. However, TableA shows that the null hypothesis that BRI does not cause DTD is rejected at lag orders 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. It means that the BRI narrative worldwide has higher precedence and significantly contributes to the information content used to formulate the debt trap diplomacy narrative worldwide. If a different keyword such as “belt and road initiative” was used in a Google Trends search, the results would remain statistically unchanged (not reported but available upon request). TableB shows that there are bidirectional relations between the debt trap diplomacy narrative and the China threat narrative. However, the debt trap diplomacy narrative can only cause the China threat narrative at lag orders 2 and 5. It is unlikely that these significant relations exist at zero lag order. 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Appendix 2: Granger Causality Tests
Null hypothesis Lag order 1 Lag order 2 Lag order 3 Lag order 4 Lag order 5 Lag order 6 DTD does not Granger cause BRI 15.2% 10.4% 19.6% 34.6% 56.3% 30.6% BRI does not Granger cause DTD 39.2% 3.2% 3.4% 4.1% 4.7% 7.9% Null hypothesis Lag order 1 Lag order 2 Lag order 3 Lag order 4 Lag order 5 Lag order 6 DTD does not Granger cause CT 24.3% 7.6% 25.1% 34.6% 5.2% 12.0% CT does not Granger cause DTD 4.0% 0.5% 2.7% 4.7% 0.4% 0.7% Appendix 3: ARDL Bounds Test
Test statistic Value k F-statistic 12.45 2 Critical value bounds Significance I(0) bound I(1) bound 10% 3.17 4.14 5% 3.79 4.85 2.5% 4.41 5.52 1% 5.15 6.36 Appendix 4: Variance Inflation Factors (VIF)
Variable VIF DTD(−1) 1.320 DTD(−2) 1.305 BRI 1.103 CT 1.096 C 1.114 References
